IMF and Government Offer Mixed Growth Projections for Cambodia's 2026 Economy

PHNOM PENH, July 8, 2026 – Cambodia's economic outlook for 2026 has become a point of divergence between the Royal Government and the International Monetary Fund, with the IMF projecting growth of approximately 3 percent while the government maintains a more optimistic forecast of 4.2 percent.

The contrasting assessments were presented during a meeting on July 7 at the Ministry of Economy and Finance, chaired by H.E. Dr. Aun Pornmoniroth, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance. The IMF Article IV mission, led by Kenichiro Kashiwase, delivered its evaluation to senior Cambodian officials, including H.E. Keo Rottanak, Minister of Mines and Energy, and H.E. Heng Sour, Minister of Labour and Vocational Training.

The IMF's moderated forecast reflects the cumulative impact of multiple overlapping shocks: the Middle East conflict driving up global oil prices, the Cambodia-Thailand border dispute, the crackdown on online scam operations, and broader global economic uncertainties.


However, the government's more optimistic assessment points to stronger-than-expected performance in non-garment manufacturing exports and positive domestic consumption trends. Tourism remains a concern, with international arrivals declining, though domestic tourism has shown some growth.

To address the challenges, the Royal Government has rolled out a series of intervention measures, including temporary tax relief on fuel and electrical appliances to ease price pressures. A comprehensive US$1.244 billion "Intervention Program to Respond to Multiple Shocks" has been adopted, focusing on three pillars: livelihood stabilization, vocational training, and energy transition.

Structural reforms are also being pursued to support medium- and long-term growth, including improving the business environment, digitalizing public services, strengthening governance, diversifying export markets, and enhancing energy security.

— Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance


Reported by The Khmer Daily Network